Ryan Braun boosts value with May power surge
If it weren't for Bryce Harper, Brewers slugger Ryan Braun might be the hottest hitter in baseball. But there's no shame here in second place.
Since April 28, Braun leads MLB in RBIs with 33 and ranks second behind Harper with 11 home runs. Braun is batting .289/.377/.691 over this stretch, with six doubles, 22 runs scored and 15 walks to go along with the power numbers.
Looking at May, the totals drop off slightly, but Braun still is having one of the best calendar months of his career.
Braun's .273 average this month is nothing special, but his eight home runs and 27 RBIs each rank in the top six of any single month of his career. It's the ninth time Braun has topped eight home runs in a single month, including five months of nine or more. At 27 RBIs with three games to play in May, Braun is within reach of his career-best mark of 29 runs batted in during September 2007.
His 1.029 OPS entering Wednesday's game was Braun's ninth best, with his top mark being 1.181 in April 2011, when he hit 10 home runs, three doubles and a triple, with 23 RBIs.
What is most remarkable about Braun's power surge is how unlikely it looked just a month ago. Before getting hot, the former National League MVP had posted a slash line of .226/.273/.274 over his first 18 games, with just one home run, four RBIs and more strikeouts (15) than hits (14). That slow start followed two years in which his offensive numbers dipped to .275/.339/.466 with 28 home runs and 119 RBIs over 196 games.
Braun's power surge also presents an intriguing dilemma for the Milwaukee Brewers. Do you sell high if he stays hot in June, or do you build around the former face of the franchise?
The former option is the better long-term move, provided the club does not retain too much of Braun's salary in order to move him to a contending club. The latter option is a better move for drawing fans to Miller Park through the rest of this season, but could slow the much-needed rebuilding process in Milwaukee.
Either way, Braun's hot month has dramatically improved his value.
Playoffs
Losers of five straight and seven of eight, the Brewers entered Wednesday with a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and 70 projected wins, according to Fangraphs. In their season-to-date stats model, the Brewers' chances improved slightly to 0.7 percent odds, but their projected win total dropped to 62.
Baseball Prospectus put Milwaukee's chances at 0.8 percent — a drop of nearly 3 percent from last week — with 72 projected wins.
Stat of the week
0-30: The Brewers' record when trailing after eight innings this season.
Power rankings
Despite the rough week, the Brewers moved up to 29th in the USA TODAY Sports rankings and to 27th on ESPN's list.
They said it
• Right-hander Matt Garza on his struggles: "It's an adversity period in my life, in my career. I'll just keep pounding the pavement, keep grinding."
• Retired commissioner Bud Selig on the "Selig Experience" at Miller Park: "Everything is really, really extraordinary. I can't emphasize that (enough). I am rarely speechless in my life. I was speechless."
• Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez on Will Smith's ejection for using a foreign substance: "The biggest thing there was that it was so blatant. If he had gone the whole inning and never went to it, I would've never said a word."
— Quotes via Associated Press
Top tweets
Squared up
What's Brewing
• In his top 25 prospects update, ESPN analyst Keith Law ranks Brewers shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia 20th.
• In the first NL all-star balloting report, no Brewers ranked among the leading vote-getters at any position.
• All-star catcher Jonathan Lucroy is expected to rejoin the Brewers on Monday in St. Louis.
— jschelling@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @jordanschelling.