Why are the Brewers so bad at Miller Park?
Win or lose, Milwaukee fans have fun at Miller Park. But the lose option has been more frequent than usual lately.
In fact, poor play at home is almost entirely to blame for the Brewers' lost season. While they've gone 22-24 on the road, they have just 16 wins in 44 home games.
No team has won fewer games at home this season, with only the Rangers matching them at 16, but in two fewer games. The average home record among MLB teams is 24-20, putting the Brewers eight games off the pace. Their road record, on the other hand, is a game better than the league average mark of 20-24.
Since opening Miller Park in 2001, the Brewers have gone 609-569 (.517) there, with seven seasons each above and below .500. Their best home mark came in 2011 at 57-24, while their worst was a pair of 31-50 years in 2002 and 2003.
From 2005 through 2012, the Brewers had the fifth-highest home winning percentage in baseball, going 380-268 (.586) at Miller Park. They outscored opponents by 216 runs in 648 games. Since, the Brewers' home-field advantage has disappeared.
Over the last 21/2 seasons, Milwaukee has gone 95-111 (.461) at home, ranking 29th in baseball. Only the Houston Astros have been worse, at 90-116. The Brewers have been outscored by nearly 100 runs over their last 206 home games.
So, what's the problem with the Brewers at home?
It starts with the 72 home runs they've given up, which is 14 more than any other team. Their 46 home runs ranks fifth in the National League offensively, but that's still a 26-home run gap in 44 home games. By contrast, they've allowed just 28 home runs on the road, the second-fewest total in MLB. With 38 offensive homers, that gives the Brewers a 10-home run advantage away from home.
As for runs scored, the Brewers have a 186-177 advantage on the road, while being outscored 232-174 at home. They've also been outhit 412-352 at home while holding a 412-388 edge on the road. Across the board, the numbers show a similar trend.
The cause of this discrepency is unclear, but a trip to Miller Park is no longer as likely to end in a win.
Playoffs
The Brewers' playoff odds remain at 0.1 percent, according to Fangraphs, as they head into the second half with 72 projected wins. In their season-to-date stats model, the Brewers have 1 percent odds, with a projected win total of 71.
Baseball Prospectus puts Milwaukee's chances at 0 percent with 72 projected wins.
Stat of the week
2: Triples for Ryan Braun in All-Star games, making him the fifth player in MLB history with two or more career All-Star triples.
Power rankings
After stumbling into the break, the Brewers have dropped back to 29th in USA TODAY Sports' rankings and remain 28th on ESPN's list.
They said it
• Braun on the idea of shortening MLB's schedule: "Ultimately, people want to see the best players play. If I'm going to see the Los Angeles Angels, I want to see Albert Pujols and Mike Trout in the lineup. If you play 154 games, it increases the likelihood they're in there every day instead of taking the occasional day off."
• Taylor Jungmann on his three-hitter against the Dodgers: "The key was just being aggressive and pounding the zone. I'm a contact guy, for the most part, so pitching to contact was huge for me, and I had good defense behind me."
• Will Smith on giving up the lead Sunday in Los Angeles: "It's tough to go into the All-Star break with a bad taste in your mouth. You've got to get the job done, and I didn't do it."
— Quotes via Associated Press, USA TODAY Sports
Top tweets
Squared up
What's Brewing
• As of last weekend, there was "nothing imminent" on the trade front for the Brewers.
• Could MLB revert back to a 154-game schedule? They're considering it.
• MLB daily dish previews what the trade deadline could look like for Milwaukee.
— jschelling@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @jordanschelling.