'Quality' pitching key for Brewers turnaround
Through 15 games, the average MLB team has seven quality starts and a 3.88 ERA. The Milwaukee Brewers, as you may have noticed, are not the average team.
Just four of the team's starts this season have been deemed "quality," and two of those came this week. They went nine games without one before Wednesday, the Brewers' longest stretch since 2001.
As a staff, they now sport a National League-worst 4.89 ERA, which actually has improved by nearly half a run thanks to back-to-back gems from Jimmy Nelson and Kyle Lohse. For as bad as the team's offense had been, the Brewers' pitching was worse.
With a quality start requiring six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs allowed, it's hardly a spectacular achievement. Still, it's deemed quality for its ability to give the offense a reasonable chance to win the game. The Brewers haven't given their offense that chance too often this season.
Milwaukee has a first-inning ERA of 6.75, and a 7.31 mark in each of the fourth, fifth and sixth innings. By the time the seventh rolls around, the offense often has been buried. The first-inning numbers — 12 earned runs on 20 hits — are particularly concerning, as the Brewers are 0-10 this season when playing from behind.
Tuesday night's loss to the Reds epitomized how poorly things had been going.
After a third-inning bases-loaded situation predictably resulted in a grand slam, the Brewers' offense surprised with four runs of its own in the bottom half of the frame. But the Reds killed any Brewers momentum with a Todd Frazier grand slam in the fourth and additional blasts in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings.
Even on a night when the offense matched its run total from the previous six games, the Brewers still lost 16-10.
Mike Fiers' ugly outing inflated the young right-hander's ERA to 6.75, putting him fourth in the rotation, ahead of Lohse at 7.94 and behind Matt Garza and Wily Peralta at 5.40 and 5.68, respectively. Only Nelson is under five, with a 1.35 ERA.
The offense is showing signs of breaking out, and the pitching staff is too. If the latter can keep it up, the Brewers still have some hope of turning around the worst start in franchise history.
Playoffs
Through 15 games, Fangraphs had the Brewers with a 0.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, with 70 projected wins. In their season-to-date stats model, the Brewers' chances improved to 2.2 percent odds, but their projected win total dropped to 60.
Baseball Prospectus put Milwaukee's chances at 4.9 percent, with 74 projected wins.
Stat of the week
3: The combined grand slam total in Tuesday's game, which occurred for just the fourth time in major league history.
Power rankings
The worst start in franchise history has the Brewers dropping to 30th in the USA TODAY Sports rankings, while remaining 29th on ESPN's list. MLB.com still does not have Milwaukee in its top 20 list.
They said it
• Fiers on Tuesday's loss: "For us to score 10 there and not even be close to winning, I can't really explain it. Things definitely haven't been going my way. I need to be better. I don't know what else to say."
• Roenicke on Scooter Gennett injuring his finger in the shower: "He doesn't understand how in the world you can possibly get hurt in the bathroom."
• Garza on the Brewers' struggles: "We just need to step back and let our ability start taking over instead of our mental side of 'Oh, I've got to make this happen, we've got to do this.' Let's just do it, let's just play, start smiling again. It's not fun when you have to walk around (mad) all the time. It's a kid's game. We should be having a good time doing it."
— Quotes via Associated Press
— jschelling@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @jordanschelling
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What's Brewing
• Brewers owner Mark Attanasio made a special trip to Milwaukee this week to show support amid the team's struggles.
• Attanasio said accountability starts with the players for the team's slow start.
• The 2014 Brewers may be the best reason not to panic yet about the 2015 club.