Why the Brewers won't make the playoffs

For all that has gone wrong in the last three weeks, the Brewers remain in a relatively fortunate position.

Starting strong while the rest of the National League Central struggled, Milwaukee built up plenty of cushion for the slump that had to come eventually. Unfortunately, that slump turned into a free fall. But even after such an inexplicable 3-16 free fall, they remain in the hunt.

Sitting just 1½ games back of the Pirates in the wild-card race and four behind the first-place Cardinals, they have three games each against those two teams next week. Win more than they lose and the Brewers could be right back in a postseason spot.

So, the opportunity is there. But the odds are not in the Brewers' favor.

Last month, Pittsburgh came to Milwaukee six games back and the Brewers had a chance to bury the Pirates as far as nine games behind, or at least knock them down to seven back with a series win. Instead, they lost two of three and the teams started heading in opposite directions.

So much so that the roles now have reversed.

The Brewers are the team heading on the road looking to get back into the playoff picture, and the Cardinals and Pirates have the opportunity to deliver knockout blows. Don't expect their NL Central rivals to be as accommodating as the Brewers were three weeks ago.

Instead, the Crew will miss the playoffs as the Cards and Bucs play on.

Just look at the next nine games. The Pirates host the Cubs, Red Sox and Brewers; Milwaukee hosts Cincinnati before traveling to St. Louis and Pittsburgh; and the Cardinals host the Rockies, Brewers and Reds.

Playing at home, the Cardinals and Pirates are more likely to gain ground than lose it over the next 10 days. As such, the Brewers could be looking up from an even bigger deficit with just six games to play.

Mathematically, you can't count the Brewers out yet.

But I wouldn't bet on them making the playoffs.

PLAYOFFS

Since hitting a season-high mark of 94 percent on Aug. 19, the Brewers' playoff odds dropped as 17 percent this week according to Baseball Prospectus. They currently sit at 21 percent heading into Friday's games, while the Cardinals lead the division at 95.2 percent and the Pirates are at 61.8 percent.

Over at Fangraphs, things look even worse for the Brewers at 19.4 percent odds, which is up from 16.5 percent earlier this week.

In their season-to-date stats mode, Fangraphs lists the Brewers at a slightly better 21.4 percent postseason probability.

STATS OF THE WEEK

• 40. Saves for Francisco Rodriguez, the fifth time he has reached that number.

• 2. Consecutive wins for the Brewers, their first win streak since Aug. 24-25.

THEY SAID IT

— Marlins manager Mike Redmond on Stanton: "It's devastating for us. Devastating. For his season to end like that, I mean, that's not good."

— Fiers on hitting Stanton: "You never think of throwing at somebody like that. Never in my life has that happened. I just feel very, very sad that I hit him. I'm sorry to their teammates, their fans, his family. It is just tough."

— Home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg on the bizarre strikeout despite two hit batters: "We've both looked at it and, yes, he did swing. They both did, at those pitches."

POWER RANKINGS

— In USA TODAY Sports' latest rankings, the Brewers are down four spots to No. 14.

— ESPN has them at No. 15, while they dropped out of MLB.com's latest list.

— Jonah Keri of Grantland, still has them ranked above the Pirates at No. 13

—Email Jordan at jschelling@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @jordanschelling

—Quotes via Associated Press